Conference tournament outlook: five bubble teams with one week left

The bubble is not soft this year. It is short.

Five teams enter championship week needing a semifinal win to feel safe, and the metrics say three of them will not get it.

Quad 1 opportunities are the whole story. Two of the five have played only four such games all season, which caps how far a strong week can move them.

The committee has been consistent about rewarding road wins. Four of these teams have one combined.